Wags Wager Week 4: September 21st, 2018

Welcome to the Wags Wager weekly column!  Each week this football season, I will be picking out seven games, including the Wager of the Week, that are going to make myself, and my followers a few bucks this football season.  These picks will be a mixture of College and NFL games.  All my spreads that I will use throughout the season will be found on MyBookie.ag

Buffalo Bulls (-5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a double-whammy for me.  The Buffalo Bulls are a good football team this year and should be the favorites to win the MAC this season.  Rutgers lost the Power 5 Toilet Bowl last week in the form of an ass-kicking from the Kansas Jayhawks.  The Bulls win this game by double digits.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (-9.5) at Kentucky Wildcats

The Joe Moorhead era in Starkville has gotten out to a fast start, winning convincingly in each of their first three games, including a strong performance against fringe top-25 Kansas State.  The Kentucky Wildcats also had a major win this season, ending their 32-game losing streak against the Florida Gators in week two.  The problem is Florida is not the same team it was ten years ago, and the Wildcats were only able to defeat a poor Central Michigan team by 15 points.  The Bulldogs are legit.  They have six pro prospects on the defensive side of the football, led by defensive linemen Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat.  Moorhead’s offensive system continues to put up points wherever he goes.  The Bulldogs win big on Saturday and I am excited to see what the Bulldogs can do as they begin conference play.

Georgia Bulldogs (-15) at Missouri

Missouri is the best offense Georgia has played to date, but Georgia is by far the best offense Missouri has played also.  Missouri gave up over 600 yards (572 through the air) to a 0-3 Purdue team last week.  Jake Fromm is going to have a field day and the Missou offense may be fast paced but that does not mean it has the talent to score on a loaded Bulldog defense.  This has a 48-24 kind of feel to it.  Bulldogs cover with flying colors.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7.5)

Nothing gets me going more than betting against Brandon Wimbush and Notre Dame.  Wake Forest is a sneaky good team this year, and Notre Dame continues to play teams close.  I do not think this week is going to be the exception.  Wake Forest is a popular upset pick this week.  I do not know if the Demon Deacons win outright but I do not see them losing by more than 7.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Washington Redskins

The Packers are coming off a game where they got robbed of a victory on a horrible roughing the passer penalty on veteran LB Clay Matthews that wiped out a Kirk Cousins interception late in regulation.  The Redskins are the unfortunate opponent that must play this pissed off Packers team this week after losing to a Colts team that has holes all throughout its roster.  Washington looked great in week one against the Cardinals, but I think the writing is on the wall for how the Cardinals season might go after being outscored 58-6 in their first two games.  Aaron Rodgers is going to put up some big numbers and the Packers walk away with a dominating win.

Los Angles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

To be honest, I was having trouble picking a third NFL line that I liked, and I settled for this one for two reasons:

  1. The Rams are the best team in football and they do not take the foot off the gas whenever they take a lead.
  2. The Chargers in the first four weeks of the NFL season are always a shit show, and without their best player, Joey Bosa, for the foreseeable future, I can see the Chargers dropping to a 1-3 record and all the analysts wondering what went wrong this time.

This is a 34-24 game.  I have a feeling that half point might come back to bite me in the ass, but that is a risk I am willing to take.

Wager of the Week

New England Patriots (-7) at Detroit Lions

Coaches that leave Bill Belichick typically struggle in the NFL and Matt Patricia will not be the exception of this rule.  The Lions got destroyed by a New York Jets team, the same team that got rocked by the Dolphins last week and are playing extremely sloppy against the Browns as I write this.  The Lions pulled off the classic backdoor cover against the 49ers last week, but I do not think they will be as lucky against the Patriots.  Last week against the Jaguars was not a great performance for the Pats but the team has one of those games every September and they always bounce back the next week.  The Pats will be out for blood and the Lions will be contemplating their identity after this ass kicking.  I got the Pats 38-17.

Last Week: 4-3 ATS

Season: 10-10 ATS

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