Wags Wager Week 5:  September 28th, 2018

Welcome to the Wags Wager weekly column!  Each week this football season, I will be picking out seven games that are going to make myself, and my followers a few bucks this football season.  These picks will be a mixture of College and NFL games.  All my spreads that I will use throughout the season will be found on MyBookie.ag

Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17.5) at Kansas Jayhawks

I know Kansas has been able to string off a few wins this season, but Oklahoma State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Texas Tech and they are going to be out for blood.  Congrats Kansas, you beat Central Michigan and Rutgers (lol).  You also lost to Nicholls State, and you have not played a good football team yet this year.  Oklahoma State wins this by over three scores.

USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats (+3.5)

USC has been flirting with disaster in 2018—getting handled by both Texas and Stanford, and almost losing to Washington State at home last Friday.  This team is young and has a lot of growing to do before they can return to New-Years-Six potential.  Arizona’s QB Khalil Tate is from Southern California and will be looking to put away his hometown Trojans.  This will be the first big win in the Kevin Sumlin Era at Arizona, and USC will be debating if Clay Helton is the right man to lead the Trojans into the future.

BYU Cougars (+16) at Washington Huskies

Washington is that team that is always in the preseason top ten, and no one actually thinks they have a chance to make it to the College Football Playoff.  Nothing has changed in 2018.  I was disappointed with their performance in week one against an Auburn team that may not be as great as we thought.  Arizona State gave them troubles at home last week, and BYU is a solid football team.  This is the Cougars opportunity to prove that their win against Wisconsin two weeks ago was not a fluke.  I am not sure if BYU wins this game, but I do think they keep it within two scores, which covers the spread.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-6.5)

I was dead wrong last week.  I thought the Patriots were going to bounce back against Lions and all they did was bring more concerns for the greatest dynasty in sports.  The balance of power is going to begin to level out this week.  The Dolphins are not skilled enough to sustain their early 3-0 success.  They need to lose at some point.  This is it.  The Patriots lose this week, there are going to be a lot of fire takes pumping through the media circus.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

The Lions were able to break the seal and get their first win of the 2018 season on Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to continue that success against the Cowboys.  The Lions played great defense against the run last week and need to do more of the same if they would like to neutralize the Cowboys bread and butter.  The Lions passing game along with the emergence of Kerryon Johnson, the first Lions running back in five years to rush for 100 yards in a game, should give the Cowboys problems.  The main reason for this is because Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee is out.  The Cowboys do not win without Sean Lee.  That is common knowledge at this point.  I got the Lions outright.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+5)

The mighty Chiefs have been acclaimed as the darling of the NFL through three weeks.  Pat Mahomes (my fantasy quarterback I got in round 13, okay, that is enough fantasy talk) is the second coming of Brett Favre.  Tyreek Hill is so good at football people forget he is a shithead.  The defense is so bad but who needs a defense when you drop over 40 points a game?  Super Bowl winners do, but that is a topic for another day.  The reason I love the Broncos +5 here is because this is the perfect storm for a letdown.  The Broncos are a sneaky good team that plays well at home.  The Chiefs are 3-0 against the spread this season, and eventually that is going to have to balance out.  A divisional road game on Monday Night against a decent team is the perfect storm for a disappointing Chiefs performance.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)

I am the number one supporter of the Baker Mayfield fan club, but there are too many factors that lead me to the decision of going all in on the Raiders this week.

  1. The Jets had no answers for Baker because they gameplanned for Tyrod Taylor. The two quarterbacks are polar opposites.  The Raiders are going to be more prepared for the rookie quarterback than the Jets were.
  2. The Browns just came off their first win in over two years. The scene in Cleveland felt like they won the Super Bowl.  It was hilarious.  Bud Light had fridges scattered across the city just to celebrate the team for snapping their pathetic losing streak.  The team is going to be coming off that high and it has letdown written all over it.
  3. I hate teams going cross country. The Browns are going from the east coast to the west coast.  The internal clock for these players is always off.
  4. The Raiders are desperate. Jon Gruden still does not have a win during his first season in Oakland, and if he does not win this one, who knows when they will win.

I hate to put money on the Raiders but sometimes you just must do the right thing.

Last Week: 2-5 (last week was a weird one)

Season: 12-15

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